Tennis · Challenger Szczecin · 15/09, 10:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Stefano Travaglia
Team pages: Thiago Monteiro · Stefano Travaglia
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Stefano Travaglia
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
4-6 (W-L)
Stefano Travaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
2–2
Stefano Travaglia
(4 last)
- 05 Sept2-1 13-12W
- 22 Jun0-2 9-13L
- 20 Sept2-1 16-12W
- 06 Feb0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1524 · Stefano Travaglia 1459
| Thiago Monteiro | Stefano Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1524 vs 1459).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Stefano Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.3 | 9.9-11.8 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 70% |
| Break % | 41.8% | 29% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 2 – 2 Stefano Travaglia (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 2–2 Stefano Travaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/23 Challenger Genoa | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 22/06/23 Challenger Parma | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/09/22 Challenger Genova | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/02/21 ATP Great Ocean Road Open | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 03/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Ivan Gakhov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 31/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Martin Krumich ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Stefano Travaglia?
Our model gives 54% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.