Tennis · Challenger Szczecin · 13/09, 12:00
Prediction: Nikita Mashtakov vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Team pages: Nikita Mashtakov · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikita Mashtakov
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Nikita Mashtakov
5-5 (W-L)
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikita Mashtakov 1566 · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1499
| Nikita Mashtakov | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikita Mashtakov (rating 1566 vs 1499).
- Nikita Mashtakov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nikita Mashtakov | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.5 | 10.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikita Mashtakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Stefan Popovic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Valentin Basel Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/08 | Daniel Michalski M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Tom Zeuch M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Calum Puttergill Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikita Mashtakov vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez?
Our model gives 63% to Nikita Mashtakov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.