Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 15/09, 03:30
Prediction: Tricia Mar vs Tia Messerli
Team pages: Tricia Mar · Tia Messerli
Prediction summary
Winner
Tricia Mar
Tia Messerli
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Tricia Mar
2-8 (W-L)
Tia Messerli
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tricia Mar 1392 · Tia Messerli 1470
| Tricia Mar | Tia Messerli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tia Messerli (rating 1392 vs 1470).
Statistics
| Tricia Mar | Tia Messerli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.7-11.8 | 8.8-10.4 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 54.4% | 49.3% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tricia Mar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Lily Fairclough UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/08 | Juny Huh UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Sue Yan Tan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Kelsey Phillips UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Veronika Miroshnichenko UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Tallia Harper UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Emily Deming UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 27/06 | Natalie Outcalt UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Tia Messerli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Kaia Giribalan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Sage Bergeson UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Marley Lambert UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Avery Nguyen W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Yulia Zhytelna W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-8 | L |
| 11/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Klara Kosan W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 03/06 | Thara Gowda W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Kuzivaishe Chapepa W15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tricia Mar vs Tia Messerli?
Our model gives 64% to Tia Messerli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.