Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 14/09, 20:00
Prediction: Matilde Magrini vs Lily Fairclough
Team pages: Lily Fairclough
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Magrini
Lily Fairclough
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Magrini
3-7 (W-L)
Lily Fairclough
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Magrini 1490 · Lily Fairclough 1563
| Matilde Magrini | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lily Fairclough (rating 1490 vs 1563).
- Lily Fairclough is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Matilde Magrini makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Lily Fairclough makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Matilde Magrini | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9-10.4 | 11.7-8.9 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 55.2% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 57.8% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Magrini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Ella Haavisto W35 Gentofte |
1-1 | 7-10 | L |
| 16/06 | Isabelle Cherny W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/04 | Megan Heuser UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 02/04 | Eduarda Piai UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 01/04 | Amy Duong UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/03 | Veronika Miroshnichenko UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/03 | Darja Suvirdjonkova UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 14/02 | Kelly Keller UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/02 | Abigail Haile UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/02 | Mingyue Deng UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Lily Fairclough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Tricia Mar UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Yelyzaveta Chainykova UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Yilin Yan UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Eva Lopez UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Isabel Cairns UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Emma Tran UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Julie Adele Bedard UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Violet Apisah W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Magrini vs Lily Fairclough?
Our model gives 68% to Lily Fairclough, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.