Tennis · M25 Sapporo · 10/09, 03:00
Prediction: Jerry Roddick vs Ryota Tanuma
Team pages: Jerry Roddick · Ryota Tanuma
Prediction summary
Winner
Jerry Roddick
Ryota Tanuma
Estimated games
19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jerry Roddick
5-5 (W-L)
Ryota Tanuma
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jerry Roddick 1485 · Ryota Tanuma 1543
| Jerry Roddick | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryota Tanuma (rating 1485 vs 1543).
- Ryota Tanuma is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jerry Roddick | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9.4 | 11-7.9 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jerry Roddick
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Yua Taka M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Ryuichiro Nakano M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/09 | Taisei Ichikawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Yamato Sueoka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 11/08 | Joshua Peck M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jon Gamble M25 Edwardsville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Karim Bennani M25 Champaign |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Luca Pow M25 Louisville |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Ryota Tanuma
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Mao Takada M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/09 | Naoki Nakagawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Yuta Kawahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Kai-I Wang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Noritaka Koizumi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Takumi Katsuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Eita Suzuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jerry Roddick vs Ryota Tanuma?
Our model gives 50% to Jerry Roddick, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.