Tennis · M25 Sapporo · 10/09, 03:00
Prediction: Yuki Mochizuki vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Yuki Mochizuki · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuki Mochizuki
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Yuki Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yuki Mochizuki
0–1
Chase Ferguson
(1 last)
- 14 Jul0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuki Mochizuki 1494 · Chase Ferguson 1537
| Yuki Mochizuki | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1494 vs 1537).
- Head-to-head: Yuki Mochizuki 0–1 Chase Ferguson (1).
Statistics
| Yuki Mochizuki | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.7 | 11.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 32.5% | 34.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Yuki Mochizuki 0 – 1 Chase Ferguson (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuki Mochizuki 0–1 Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/26 M25 Brisbane | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuki Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Makoto Ochi M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Kasidit Samrej M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Fanming Meng M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 08/08 | Donghyun Hwang M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/08 | Ruochen Gao M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jaesung Choe M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/07 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Chase Ferguson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Riku Takahata M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Yusuke Takahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/08 | Rigele Te M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yua Taka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Derek Pham M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuki Mochizuki vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 55% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.