Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 10/09, 11:00
Prediction: Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Francesco Passaro · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Passaro
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Passaro
6-4 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesco Passaro
0–1
Juan Pablo Varillas
(1 last)
- 15 Mar1-2 17-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Passaro 1522 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1585
| Francesco Passaro | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1522 vs 1585).
- Head-to-head: Francesco Passaro 0–1 Juan Pablo Varillas (1).
Statistics
| Francesco Passaro | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.4 | 13.5-10.9 |
| Aces | 5 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 43.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
H2H · Francesco Passaro 0 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesco Passaro 0–1 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/24 Challenger Santiago | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Lorenzo Sonego Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Jesper De Jong US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 28/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Tom Gentzsch US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/08 | Felix Gill US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 27/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 54% to Francesco Passaro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.