Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 10/09, 10:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Andrea Pellegrino
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
5-5 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valerio Aboian
0–1
Andrea Pellegrino
(1 last)
- 03 Feb0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1552 · Andrea Pellegrino 1511
| Valerio Aboian | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1552 vs 1511).
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian 0–1 Andrea Pellegrino (1).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.7 | 11.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 5 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Valerio Aboian 0 – 1 Andrea Pellegrino (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 0–1 Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/25 Challenger Rosario | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Luca Castagnola Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 05/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/08 | Karlo Kajin M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Nik Mikovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 63% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.