Tennis · M25 Pozzuoli · 10/09, 10:00
Prediction: Matteo Mesaglio vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Matteo Mesaglio · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Mesaglio
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Mesaglio
5-5 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Mesaglio 1516 · Aidan Mchugh 1516
| Matteo Mesaglio | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Matteo Mesaglio | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-10.2 | 13.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 66.7% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Mesaglio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Davide Ciaschetti M25 Pozzuoli |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 07/09 | Patric Prinoth M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Davide Ciaschetti M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 25/06 | George Lazarov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Sasa Markovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/05 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Alessio Babudri M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/05 | Maxime Chazal M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Gabriele Maria Piano M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-7 | W |
Aidan Mchugh
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei M25 Pozzuoli |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Gavin Goode M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/01 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/01 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/11 | Andreja Petrovic ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/11 | Julian Alonso ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/11 | Evan Burnett ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/11 | Hiroki Sakagawa ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/11 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Champaign · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 12/11 | Jeremy Zhang Challenger Champaign · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Mesaglio vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 69% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.