Tennis · M25 Pozzuoli · 08/09, 12:00
Prediction: Niccolo Catini vs Pavlos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Niccolo Catini · Pavlos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Niccolo Catini
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Niccolo Catini
7-3 (W-L)
Pavlos Tsitsipas
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Catini 1473 · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1518
| Niccolo Catini | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavlos Tsitsipas (rating 1473 vs 1518).
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Niccolo Catini | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.9 | 12.4-13 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Catini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Michael Savano M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Tiago Pereira M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Alexander Weis M25 Lesa |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Iiro Vasa M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Gioele Cerelli M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Brendan McDonald M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Matyas Kozlovsky M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Dino Molokova Ferreira M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/08 | Arda Azkara M15 Turku |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 04/08 | Dominik Palan M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Roan Jones M15 Dublin |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Catini vs Pavlos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 57% to Pavlos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.