Tennis · M25 Pozzuoli · 08/09, 10:30
Prediction: Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei
3-7 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei 1445 · Aidan Mchugh 1509
| Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1445 vs 1509).
- Aidan Mchugh is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-11.8 | 13.3-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 33.9% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Manuel Plunger M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Ammar Elamin M15 Warsaw |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 11/08 | Piotr Siekanowicz M15 Warsaw |
2-1 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/07 | Leonardo Borrelli M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Mattia Cona M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Karel Froemel M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Car M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/04 | Florent Bax M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/03 | Marco Furlanetto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Aidan Mchugh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | Gavin Goode M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/01 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/01 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/11 | Andreja Petrovic ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/11 | Julian Alonso ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/11 | Evan Burnett ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/11 | Hiroki Sakagawa ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/11 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Champaign · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 12/11 | Jeremy Zhang Challenger Champaign · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 09/11 | Erik Arutiunian M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 76% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.