Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 08/09, 14:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas · Federico Arnaboldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Federico Arnaboldi
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
6-4 (W-L)
Federico Arnaboldi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juan Pablo Varillas
2–0
Federico Arnaboldi
(2 last)
- 02 Sept2-0 12-4W
- 28 Mar2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1581 · Federico Arnaboldi 1518
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Federico Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1581 vs 1518).
- Head-to-head: Juan Pablo Varillas 2–0 Federico Arnaboldi (2).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Federico Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.2 | 11.1-11 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Juan Pablo Varillas 2 – 0 Federico Arnaboldi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo Varillas 2–0 Federico Arnaboldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 Challenger Como | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/03/23 Challenger Sanremo | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Federico Arnaboldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Crivellaro Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Sandro Kopp M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 28/07 | Peter Buldorini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/07 | Peetu Pohjola Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi?
Our model gives 66% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.