Tennis · UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · 08/09, 21:30

Prediction: Ariana Gilbert vs Amina Salibayeva

Team pages: Ariana Gilbert · Amina Salibayeva

Prediction summary

Winner

31% 69%

Ariana Gilbert Amina Salibayeva

Estimated games

21.2

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana Gilbert 3-7 (W-L)

LLWLLWLLWL

Amina Salibayeva 4-6 (W-L)

WLWLLWWLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana Gilbert 1417 · Amina Salibayeva 1522

	Ariana Gilbert	Amina Salibayeva
Our model	35%	65%
Market	27%	73%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amina Salibayeva (rating 1417 vs 1522).
Amina Salibayeva is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Note: Ariana Gilbert makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Note: Amina Salibayeva makes many double faults (4.1/match).

Statistics

	Ariana Gilbert	Amina Salibayeva
Win %	20%	60%
Win % · Hard	20% (10)	60% (10)
Sets (G-P)	0.7-1.6	1.2-1
Games (G-P)	10.2-12.5	10.4-9.6
Aces	2.8	0.6
Double faults	5.2	4.1
1st serve %	66.4%	59.8%
Break %	40.9%	52.3%

Estimated total games (ours) 21.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

21.28

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
05:26 +10’	3.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana Gilbert

LLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
07/09	Hayley Roberts UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	6-12	L
15/08	Monika Wojcik UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	2-0	13-7	W
14/08	Sabritt Dozier UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	10-13	L
13/08	Isabella Camacho UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	1-2	14-19	L
12/08	Kaya Moe UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	1-2	10-18	L
11/08	Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	1-2	11-16	L
25/07	Anna Arkadianou UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	7-12	L
24/07	Natalie Oliver UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	2-0	12-2	W
23/07	Reese Frank UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	10-13	L
23/07	Aryana Bartlett UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	9-13	L

Amina Salibayeva

WWLLL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
15/08	Lexie Weir UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	4-12	L
14/08	Kaya Moe UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	7-13	L
13/08	Mary Boyce Deatherage UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	0-2	6-12	L
12/08	Brooke Lynn Schafer UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	2-0	13-8	W
11/08	Ishika Ashar UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard	2-0	12-3	W
13/06	Mariana Manyoma UTR Pro Boston Women · Hard	0-2	8-13	L
12/06	Lucia Fuduric UTR Pro Boston Women · Hard	2-1	15-14	W
11/06	Niba N'Tcha UTR Pro Boston Women · Hard	2-0	13-8	W
10/06	Jacqueline Soloveychik UTR Pro Boston Women · Hard	2-1	14-8	W
09/06	Maria Araoz Gosn UTR Pro Boston Women · Hard	2-0	12-5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana Gilbert vs Amina Salibayeva?

Our model gives 69% to Amina Salibayeva, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.