Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 07/09, 10:00
Prediction: Andrey Chepelev vs Gianmarco Ferrari
Team pages: Andrey Chepelev · Gianmarco Ferrari
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Chepelev
Gianmarco Ferrari
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Chepelev
7-3 (W-L)
Gianmarco Ferrari
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Chepelev
2–0
Gianmarco Ferrari
(2 last)
- 07 Oct2-0 12-3W
- 18 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Chepelev 1528 · Gianmarco Ferrari 1525
| Andrey Chepelev | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Andrey Chepelev 2–0 Gianmarco Ferrari (2).
Statistics
| Andrey Chepelev | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8.6 | 11.2-10.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Andrey Chepelev 2 – 0 Gianmarco Ferrari (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Chepelev 2–0 Gianmarco Ferrari
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/25 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06/22 ITF M15 Chieti | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Jeremy Gschwendtner Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Fausto Tabacco Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/08 | Niccolo Ciavarella Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Henry Bernet M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/08 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Tymur Bieldiugin M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Luca Parenti M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Stefan Horia Haita M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Gianmarco Ferrari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Francesco Ferrari Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/08 | Andrea Colombo Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/08 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 09/08 | Edoardo Betti Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Leonardo Borrelli M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Chepelev vs Gianmarco Ferrari?
Our model gives 54% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.