Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 10/09, 20:00
Prediction: Tricia Mar vs Lily Fairclough
Team pages: Tricia Mar · Lily Fairclough
Prediction summary
Winner
Tricia Mar
Lily Fairclough
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Tricia Mar
2-8 (W-L)
Lily Fairclough
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tricia Mar 1396 · Lily Fairclough 1547
| Tricia Mar | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lily Fairclough (rating 1396 vs 1547).
- Lily Fairclough is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tricia Mar | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.8-11.8 | 10.6-9.1 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 53.1% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tricia Mar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/08 | Juny Huh UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Sue Yan Tan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Kelsey Phillips UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Veronika Miroshnichenko UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Tallia Harper UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Emily Deming UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 27/06 | Natalie Outcalt UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Gala Arangio UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Lily Fairclough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Yelyzaveta Chainykova UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Yilin Yan UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Eva Lopez UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Isabel Cairns UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Emma Tran UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Julie Adele Bedard UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Violet Apisah W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Natsuho Arakawa W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Carolann Delaunay W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 8-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tricia Mar vs Lily Fairclough?
Our model gives 81% to Lily Fairclough, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.