Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 06/09, 14:30
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1502 · Luca Castagnola 1500
| Valerio Aboian | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.7 | 9.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/08 | Karlo Kajin M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Nik Mikovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Aljaz Jeran M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Matic Hribar M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 64% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.