Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 06/09, 13:00
Prediction: Francesco Forti vs Niccolo Ciavarella
Team pages: Francesco Forti · Niccolo Ciavarella
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Forti
Niccolo Ciavarella
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Forti
3-7 (W-L)
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Forti 1493 · Niccolo Ciavarella 1396
| Francesco Forti | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesco Forti (rating 1493 vs 1396).
- Francesco Forti is in better form: 40% recent wins.
Statistics
| Francesco Forti | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 0% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 0.4-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-9.9 | 7.4-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 58.7% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Forti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Giorgio Ricca Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/08 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 6-9 | L |
| 12/08 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Michele Mecarelli Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Federico Coria Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Federico Zeballos Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Peter Makk Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Niccolo Ciavarella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Fano |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Adrian Andreev M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Forti vs Niccolo Ciavarella?
Our model gives 77% to Francesco Forti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.