Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 01/09, 13:00
Prediction: Alexandre Aubriot vs Filiberto Fumagalli
Team pages: Alexandre Aubriot · Filiberto Fumagalli
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Aubriot
Filiberto Fumagalli
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Aubriot
4-6 (W-L)
Filiberto Fumagalli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Aubriot 1453 · Filiberto Fumagalli 1531
| Alexandre Aubriot | Filiberto Fumagalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Filiberto Fumagalli (rating 1453 vs 1531).
- Filiberto Fumagalli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Alexandre Aubriot makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Alexandre Aubriot | Filiberto Fumagalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.6 | 9-7.3 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 60.4% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Aubriot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Antoni Fabre M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Daniel Jade M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Pieter De Lange M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 16/06 | Facundo Yunis M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Tristan Berard M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Simeon Stankovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Nikola Lulic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/04 | Petr Nesterov M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Filiberto Fumagalli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Drazen Petrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-2 | W |
| 07/08 | Gabriel Ghetu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
0-1 | 5-7 | L |
| 06/08 | Odysseas Geladaris M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Yuto Oki M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M25 Pitesti |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Calin Teodor Stirbu M25 Pitesti |
2-0 | 9-1 | W |
| 17/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/07 | Jeremy Gschwendtner M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Aubriot vs Filiberto Fumagalli?
Our model gives 55% to Filiberto Fumagalli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.