Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 04/09, 12:30
Prediction: Alexandre Aubriot vs Stefano D'Agostino
Team pages: Alexandre Aubriot · Stefano D'Agostino
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Aubriot
Stefano D'Agostino
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Aubriot
4-6 (W-L)
Stefano D'Agostino
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Aubriot 1484 · Stefano D'Agostino 1568
| Alexandre Aubriot | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefano D'Agostino (rating 1484 vs 1568).
- Stefano D'Agostino is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alexandre Aubriot makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Alexandre Aubriot | Stefano D'Agostino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.3 | 11.7-9.8 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Aubriot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Egor Shcherbakov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Antoni Fabre M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Daniel Jade M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Pieter De Lange M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 16/06 | Facundo Yunis M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Tristan Berard M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Simeon Stankovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Stefano D'Agostino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Richard Lacis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Alvaro Peiro Serrano M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Manuel Mazza M25 Lesa |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Fano |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Michele Mecarelli M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Vito Antonio Darderi M25 Fano |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Aubriot vs Stefano D'Agostino?
Our model gives 67% to Stefano D'Agostino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.