Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 05/09, 14:30
Prediction: Alexandre Aubriot vs Dmitry Popko
Team pages: Alexandre Aubriot · Dmitry Popko
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Aubriot
Dmitry Popko
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Aubriot
4-6 (W-L)
Dmitry Popko
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Aubriot 1490 · Dmitry Popko 1549
| Alexandre Aubriot | Dmitry Popko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dmitry Popko (rating 1490 vs 1549).
- Dmitry Popko is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alexandre Aubriot makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Alexandre Aubriot | Dmitry Popko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.4 | 13.2-9.6 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Aubriot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Egor Shcherbakov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Antoni Fabre M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Daniel Jade M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Pieter De Lange M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 16/06 | Facundo Yunis M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Tristan Berard M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Dmitry Popko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Edouard Villoslada M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Gokberk Saritas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/08 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Cristian Felipe Sanchez Rojas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Mateo Castaneda Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Jie Cui M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Zac Hamill M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Aubriot vs Dmitry Popko?
Our model gives 67% to Dmitry Popko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.