Tennis · W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Federica Urgesi vs Lia Karatancheva
Team pages: Federica Urgesi · Lia Karatancheva
Prediction summary
Winner
Federica Urgesi
Lia Karatancheva
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Federica Urgesi
5-5 (W-L)
Lia Karatancheva
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federica Urgesi 1500 · Lia Karatancheva 1463
| Federica Urgesi | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Federica Urgesi makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Federica Urgesi | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.4 | 10.7-10.7 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 1 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 60.3% |
| Break % | 53% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federica Urgesi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Bytom |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Dalila Jakupovic W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 7-2 | W |
| 05/08 | Martha Matoula W75 Koksijde |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Amelie Van Impe W75 Koksijde |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Barbora Palicova W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Diana Martynov W75 Hechingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Arantxa Rus W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Lia Karatancheva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Ksenia Zaytseva W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/08 | Ikumi Yamazaki W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 11/08 | Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 04/08 | Zuzanna Pawlikowska WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Nika Hurkacz WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/07 | Beatrice Ricci W35 Torino |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Gaia Maduzzi W35 Torino |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Arianna Zucchini W35 Torino |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/07 | Lea Boskovic W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Arantxa Rus W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federica Urgesi vs Lia Karatancheva?
Our model gives 57% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.