Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 23:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
James Duckworth
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
James Duckworth
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Sonego
2–0
James Duckworth
(2 last)
- 21 Jun2-1 18-18W
- 03 Jul3-0 18-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1525 · James Duckworth 1540
| Lorenzo Sonego | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- James Duckworth dominates on serve: 7 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego 2–0 James Duckworth (2).
- Note: James Duckworth makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-14.9 | 14.1-12.2 |
| Aces | 9.9 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 80.1% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.2
Over 24.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 42% · 1.83
H2H · Lorenzo Sonego 2 – 0 James Duckworth (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Sonego 2–0 James Duckworth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/22 ATP Eastbourne | 2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 03/07/21 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
James Duckworth
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Aidan Mayo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Tallon Griekspoor Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 50% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.