Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 16:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Aleksandar Kovacevic · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Kovacevic
3-7 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aleksandar Kovacevic
0–1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(1 last)
- 23 Feb0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1489 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1534
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1489 vs 1534).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aleksandar Kovacevic 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1).
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-14.3 | 13.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.2
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 – 1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aleksandar Kovacevic 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/24 ATP Los Cabos | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 23/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 65% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.