Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 19:00
Prediction: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Hugo Grenier · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Grenier
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Grenier
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Grenier 1504 · Sebastian Baez 1546
| Hugo Grenier | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1504 vs 1546).
- Note: Hugo Grenier makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Hugo Grenier | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.5 | 11-11.2 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 33% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.5
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Roman Safiullin ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Neil Oberleitner ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/08 | Dali Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Cyril Vandermeersch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Matthias Uwe Kask M25 Roda de Bara |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tristan Berard M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 70% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.