Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 19:00
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Aleksandar Kovacevic
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
7-3 (W-L)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1602 · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1470
| Luca Van Assche | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Van Assche (rating 1602 vs 1470).
- Luca Van Assche is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (6.2/match).
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-11.3 | 11.3-14.6 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 8 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/08 | Gustavo Heide ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 23/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Michael Mmoh ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Aleksandar Kovacevic?
Our model gives 66% to Luca Van Assche, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.