Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 19:00
Prediction: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac
Team pages: Mees Rottgering · Tomas Machac
Prediction summary
Winner
Mees Rottgering
Tomas Machac
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mees Rottgering
7-3 (W-L)
Tomas Machac
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mees Rottgering 1569 · Tomas Machac 1494
| Mees Rottgering | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mees Rottgering (rating 1569 vs 1494).
Statistics
| Mees Rottgering | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8.2 | 12-13.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 37.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.6
Over 22.5: 46% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 54% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mees Rottgering
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Jan Choinski ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 23/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hunter Heck ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Henry Searle Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Garrett Johns Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Benjamin Kittay Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/04 | Cameron Norrie ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 22/04 | Francisco Comesana ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Andrey Rublev ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Sebastian Baez ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 08/04 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac?
Our model gives 54% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.