Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 19:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
3–2
Lorenzo Sonego
(5 last)
- 26 Sept2-1 13-11W
- 03 Jan2-0 12-8W
- 31 Aug3-1 20-14W
- 27 Jun1-2 15-16L
- 13 May1-2 15-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1463 · Lorenzo Sonego 1497
| Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 3–2 Lorenzo Sonego (5).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.4-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.6 | 16.2-15.7 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.8
Over 23.5: 55% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 45% · 1.80
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 3 – 2 Lorenzo Sonego (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 3–2 Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/24 ATP Beijing | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/01/24 United Cup | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/08/20 US Open | 3-1 | 20-14 | W |
| 27/06/19 ATP Antalya | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 13/05/18 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 57% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.