Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 26/08, 00:30
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Damm
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Martin Damm
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Martin Damm
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Martin Damm
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1500 · Martin Damm 1514
| Daniil Medvedev | Martin Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 9.1 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Martin Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-13.1 | 14.1-13.8 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.4
Over 22.5: 66% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 34% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Martin Damm
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/07 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Marco Trungelliti Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Damm?
Our model gives 63% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.