Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 25/08, 18:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
6-4 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mattia Bellucci
1–2
Luciano Darderi
(3 last)
- 01 Apr0-2 6-12L
- 12 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 30 Sept0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1492 · Luciano Darderi 1522
| Mattia Bellucci | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci 1–2 Luciano Darderi (3).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.8-13.6 | 12.8-11.8 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 32.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1
Over 23.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Mattia Bellucci 1 – 2 Luciano Darderi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattia Bellucci 1–2 Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 ATP Marrakech | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/01/23 Australian Open | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09/19 M25 Santa Margherita | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 52% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.