Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 24/08, 21:30
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering
Team pages: Jan Choinski · Mees Rottgering
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Mees Rottgering
Estimated games
20.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
6-4 (W-L)
Mees Rottgering
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1575 · Mees Rottgering 1562
| Jan Choinski | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.4 | 10.9-7.5 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -2.9
Over 23.5: 31% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 69% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 02/08 | Jamie Mackenzie Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Mees Rottgering
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hunter Heck ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Henry Searle Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Garrett Johns Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Benjamin Kittay Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering?
Our model gives 54% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.