Tennis · M25 Oviedo · 24/08, 11:30

Prediction: Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento vs Jose Dominguez Alonso

Team pages: Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento · Jose Dominguez Alonso

Prediction summary

Winner

67% 33%

Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento Jose Dominguez Alonso

Estimated games

20.3

Recent form · 10 last

Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 4-6 (W-L)

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Jose Dominguez Alonso 4-6 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1–0 Jose Dominguez Alonso (1 last)

28 Jul2-0 9-5W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1498 · Jose Dominguez Alonso 1477

	Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento	Jose Dominguez Alonso
Our model	53%	47%
Market	78%	22%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Head-to-head: Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1–0 Jose Dominguez Alonso (1).

Statistics

	Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento	Jose Dominguez Alonso
Win %	50%	40%
Win % · Clay	0% (1)	40% (5)
Sets (G-P)	1-1.1	0.9-1.3
Games (G-P)	8.9-9.3	10.3-9.8
Aces	0.5	1.5
Double faults	1.3	1.8
1st serve %	60.6%	62%
Break %	45.6%	51%

Estimated total games (ours) 20.3

H2H · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1 – 0 Jose Dominguez Alonso (1)

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.33

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
22:19 +14’	1.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1–0 Jose Dominguez Alonso

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
28/07/26 M15 Xativa	2-0	9-5	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento

LWLLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
23/08	Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas M25 Oviedo	2-0	12-6	W
17/08	Jordi Garcia Mestre M25 Santander	0-2	8-13	L
30/07	Carles Hernandez M15 Xativa	0-2	9-13	L
28/07	Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Xativa	2-0	9-5	W
23/07	Lorenzo Angelini M25 Denia	0-2	7-12	L
22/07	Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Denia	2-0	12-6	W
16/07	Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Gandia	0-2	7-12	L
15/07	Pablo Aunion M25 Gandia	2-0	12-4	W
14/07	Martins Rocens M25 Gandia	2-1	9-10	W
02/07	Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Getxo · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L

Jose Dominguez Alonso

LWLLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
23/08	Bernardo Tedesco M25 Oviedo	2-0	13-8	W
28/07	Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Xativa	0-2	5-9	L
02/07	Walid Ahouda M25 Rabat · ~Clay	0-2	6-12	L
01/07	Othman Bezzaz M25 Rabat · ~Clay	2-1	18-13	W
30/06	Dillon Beckles M25 Rabat · ~Clay	0-2	8-12	L
29/06	Sohaib Safi M25 Rabat · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
23/06	Nathan Walters M25 Tanger · ~Clay	0-2	10-13	L
10/06	Samuel De Felipe Garcia M25 Martos · ~Hard	0-2	7-13	L
09/06	Nicola Ion M25 Martos · ~Hard	2-0	12-7	W
18/05	Gabriel Gomez M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard	1-2	12-9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento vs Jose Dominguez Alonso?

Our model gives 67% to Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.