Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 23/08, 19:00
Prediction: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Quinn Vandecasteele
Team pages: Pierre-Hugues Herbert · Quinn Vandecasteele
Prediction summary
Winner
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Quinn Vandecasteele
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
6-4 (W-L)
Quinn Vandecasteele
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1494 · Quinn Vandecasteele 1558
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Quinn Vandecasteele (rating 1494 vs 1558).
- Note: Pierre-Hugues Herbert makes many double faults (6.5/match).
- Note: Quinn Vandecasteele makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-14 | 12.1-9.5 |
| Aces | 11.9 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 6.5 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 79.6% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.1
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Sandro Kopp ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Thiago Monteiro ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 22/06 | Paul Jubb Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 07/06 | Mert Alkaya ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniil Glinka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/05 | Lorenzo Sonego French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-25 | L |
| 22/05 | Leandro Riedi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Kaichi Uchida French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Quinn Vandecasteele
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Li Tu ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Ajeet Rai Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Patricio Alvarado Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Quinn Vandecasteele?
Our model gives 54% to Pierre-Hugues Herbert, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.