Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 22/08, 18:30
Prediction: Li Tu vs Quinn Vandecasteele
Team pages: Quinn Vandecasteele
Prediction summary
Winner
Li Tu
Quinn Vandecasteele
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Li Tu
5-5 (W-L)
Quinn Vandecasteele
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Li Tu 1516 · Quinn Vandecasteele 1509
| Li Tu | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Quinn Vandecasteele dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 46% break avg.
Statistics
| Li Tu | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.5 | 12.1-10.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 35% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.3
Over 23.5: 41% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 59% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Li Tu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 18/04 | Charles Broom Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Blake Ellis Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/04 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 15/04 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/04 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/04 | Kody Pearson Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Quinn Vandecasteele
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Ajeet Rai Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Patricio Alvarado Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Li Tu vs Quinn Vandecasteele?
Our model gives 50% to Li Tu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.