Tennis · W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 20/08, 10:00
Prediction: Darya Astakhova vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Team pages: Darya Astakhova · Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Prediction summary
Winner
Darya Astakhova
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Darya Astakhova
6-4 (W-L)
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darya Astakhova 1518 · Lucija Ciric Bagaric 1572
| Darya Astakhova | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucija Ciric Bagaric (rating 1518 vs 1572).
- Note: Lucija Ciric Bagaric makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Darya Astakhova | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-9.5 | 11-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 57.7% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 72.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darya Astakhova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Lea Nilsson W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/08 | Luna Vujovic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Elena Milovanovic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Antonia Rivera W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Berfu Cengiz W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/07 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/07 | Dalila Jakupovic W100 Aschaffenburg |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Xinxin Yao W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Lea Boskovic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/08 | Antonia Stoyanov W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Lana Virc W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/08 | Ksenia Zaytseva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Bianca E Barbulescu W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Rachel Gailis WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/07 | Maria Sara Popa WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Amandine Monnot WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Federica Urgesi W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darya Astakhova vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric?
Our model gives 51% to Darya Astakhova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.