Tennis · M15 Bastad · 19/08, 10:00
Prediction: Kevin Edengren vs Andrea Bacaloni
Team pages: Kevin Edengren · Andrea Bacaloni
Prediction summary
Winner
Kevin Edengren
Andrea Bacaloni
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Kevin Edengren
2-8 (W-L)
Andrea Bacaloni
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kevin Edengren 1439 · Andrea Bacaloni 1524
| Kevin Edengren | Andrea Bacaloni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Bacaloni (rating 1439 vs 1524).
- Andrea Bacaloni is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Kevin Edengren | Andrea Bacaloni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-12.2 | 10.2-9.1 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 23.6% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kevin Edengren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Karl Friberg M15 Malmo |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Leo Borg M15 Malmo |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Adam Lynch M25 Denia |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Gandia |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Francisco Faria M25 Porto |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Rahul Dhokia M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Karol Malirz M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Andrea Bacaloni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Oskari Paldanius M15 Turku |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeri Lassila M15 Turku |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Felix Alopaeus M15 Turku |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 10/08 | Aatu Niemelae M15 Turku |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Edoardo Betti M25 Fano |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 14/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/07 | Edoardo De Filippo M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Togan Tokac M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Louay Makke M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kevin Edengren vs Andrea Bacaloni?
Our model gives 55% to Andrea Bacaloni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.