Tennis · W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · 16/08, 12:30
Prediction: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Lana Virc
Team pages: Lucija Ciric Bagaric · Lana Virc
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Lana Virc
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
7-3 (W-L)
Lana Virc
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucija Ciric Bagaric 1531 · Lana Virc 1440
| Lucija Ciric Bagaric | Lana Virc | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucija Ciric Bagaric (rating 1531 vs 1440).
- Lucija Ciric Bagaric is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Lucija Ciric Bagaric makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lucija Ciric Bagaric | Lana Virc | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-9.6 | 10.4-12.8 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 54.3% |
| Break % | 68.2% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Ksenia Zaytseva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Bianca E Barbulescu W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Rachel Gailis WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/07 | Maria Sara Popa WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Amandine Monnot WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Federica Urgesi W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Deborah Chiesa W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Maria Toma W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Lana Virc
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Natalija Senic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nina Radovanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Saoirse Breen W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 11/03 | Katy Dunne W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 10/03 | Madhurima Sawant W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/03 | Camilla Zanolini W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/03 | Magdalena Hedrzak W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/11 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Pia Lovric ITF W15 Sibenik · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Eliska Tichackova ITF W15 Sibenik · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Lana Virc?
Our model gives 75% to Lucija Ciric Bagaric, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.