Tennis · ATP Cincinnati MD · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Khachanov/Rublev vs Arevalo/Pavic
Team pages: Arevalo/Pavic
Prediction summary
Winner
Khachanov/Rublev
Arevalo/Pavic
Estimated games
25.2
Recent form · 10 last
Khachanov/Rublev
3-7 (W-L)
Arevalo/Pavic
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Khachanov/Rublev 1494 · Arevalo/Pavic 1603
| Khachanov/Rublev | Arevalo/Pavic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arevalo/Pavic (rating 1494 vs 1603).
- Arevalo/Pavic is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Khachanov/Rublev | Arevalo/Pavic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15-15.9 | 14-10.6 |
| Aces | 5 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 81.6% |
| Break % | 30% | 31.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Khachanov/Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Arnaldi/Musetti ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 05/04 | Lehecka/Mensik ATP Monte Carlo MD · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/03 | Rinderknech/Vacherot ATP Indian Wells MD · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Auger Aliassime/Korda ATP Indian Wells MD · Hard |
2-1 | 21-17 | W |
| 10/03 | Nys/Roger-Vasselin ATP Indian Wells MD · Hard |
2-1 | 21-17 | W |
| 16/02 | Heliovaara/Patten ATP Doha MD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/01 | Musetti/Sonego ATP Hong Kong MD · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 10/01 | Kirkov/Stevens ATP Hong Kong MD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 08/01 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Hong Kong MD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 06/01 | Nouza/Rikl ATP Hong Kong MD · Hard |
2-1 | 23-19 | W |
Arevalo/Pavic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Luz/Matos ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-21 | L |
| 12/08 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/08 | Chan/Galarneau ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Pavlasek/Rikl ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Galloway/King ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/07 | Heliovaara/Patten Wimbledon MD · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Krawietz/Puetz Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Cash/Glasspool Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Rojer/Winegar Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/07 | Stevenson/Willis Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Khachanov/Rublev vs Arevalo/Pavic?
Our model gives 61% to Arevalo/Pavic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.