Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Bruno Fernandez
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Bruno Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Bruno Fernandez
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Bruno Fernandez
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1501 · Bruno Fernandez 1408
| Luca Castagnola | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castagnola (rating 1501 vs 1408).
- Luca Castagnola is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Bruno Fernandez makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.4 | 11.8-13.4 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 40.3% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Bruno Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 30/06 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 12/05 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 04/05 | Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Bruno Fernandez?
Our model gives 51% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.