Tennis · UTR Pro Tallahassee · 11/08, 19:00
Prediction: Ian Mayew vs Justin Lyons
Team pages: Ian Mayew
Prediction summary
Winner
Ian Mayew
Justin Lyons
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ian Mayew
10-0 (W-L)
Justin Lyons
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ian Mayew 1571 · Justin Lyons 1509
| Ian Mayew | Justin Lyons | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ian Mayew (rating 1571 vs 1509).
- Ian Mayew is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Ian Mayew makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Ian Mayew | Justin Lyons | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-8 | 9.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 20.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ian Mayew
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Andrew Delgado UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Mason Taube UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Cornelius Alexander Shalmi UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Esunge Ndumbe UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Oliver Sanders UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 18/01 | Roan Jones UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/01 | Maxime St-Hilaire UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/01 | Nicholas Mangiapane UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/01 | Julian Lozano UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Justin Lyons
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/12 | Jan Sebesta UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/12 | John Bernard UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/12 | Albert Saar UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/12 | Vito Tonejc UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/12 | Azariah Rusher UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/12 | Noah Folkesson Doudy UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/09 | Corey Craig UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Jorge Robinson UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Mohammad Alkotop UTR Pro Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ian Mayew vs Justin Lyons?
Our model gives 75% to Ian Mayew, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.