Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 07/08, 16:00
Prediction: Andre Ilagan vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Andre Ilagan · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Andre Ilagan
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Andre Ilagan
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andre Ilagan 1517 · Sebastian Gorzny 1513
| Andre Ilagan | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Andre Ilagan | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.5 | 11-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 29.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andre Ilagan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/07 | Marcos Giron ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Remy Bertola ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 21/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Connor Plunkett Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Borna Gojo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 21/07 | Borna Gojo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Gavin Young Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Landon Ardila M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andre Ilagan vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 58% to Andre Ilagan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.