Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Spencer Johnson vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Spencer Johnson · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Spencer Johnson
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Spencer Johnson
9-1 (W-L)
Jay Friend
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Spencer Johnson
0–1
Jay Friend
(1 last)
- 06 Oct1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spencer Johnson 1560 · Jay Friend 1555
| Spencer Johnson | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 8 aces and 42.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Spencer Johnson 0–1 Jay Friend (1).
- Note: Jay Friend makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Spencer Johnson | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.2 | 12.4-12.2 |
| Aces | 8 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 68% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 32.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Spencer Johnson 0 – 1 Jay Friend (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spencer Johnson 0–1 Jay Friend
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/25 Challenger Fairfield | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spencer Johnson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Stian Klaassen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Jay Friend
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Colton Smith Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 30/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Connor Church Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spencer Johnson vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 55% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.