Tennis · M25 Tauste · 05/08, 19:30
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Ander Tarrio Ponte
Team pages: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez · Ander Tarrio Ponte
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Ander Tarrio Ponte
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1476 · Ander Tarrio Ponte 1560
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Ander Tarrio Ponte | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ander Tarrio Ponte (rating 1476 vs 1560).
- Ander Tarrio Ponte is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Ander Tarrio Ponte | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.8 | 12.2-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 62% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 22.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Matias Reyniak M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Max Villar M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Lautaro Agustin Corthey UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/07 | Riccardo Campagnola UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Razvan Baiant UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Noah Folkesson Doudy UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Timo De Visser UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Jakub Volesky UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Aleksa Oparnica UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Noah Folkesson Doudy UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Ander Tarrio Ponte?
Our model gives 66% to Mario Gonzalez Fernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.