Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 04/08, 20:00
Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Aidan Mayo
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Aidan Mayo
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Aidan Mayo
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
5-5 (W-L)
Aidan Mayo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1493 · Aidan Mayo 1547
| Rei Sakamoto | Aidan Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1493 vs 1547).
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Aidan Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.7 | 14-12.2 |
| Aces | 11.8 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 30.5% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Jules Leroux Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Anton Matusevich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Yibing Wu Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Pedro Martinez French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Alex Molcan Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/08 | Christian Langmo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 29/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Evan King ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 20/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 15/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Aidan Mayo?
Our model gives 51% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.