Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 05/08, 00:30
Prediction: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin
Team pages: Nicolas Arseneault · Andres Martin
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Arseneault
Andres Martin
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Arseneault
4-6 (W-L)
Andres Martin
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Arseneault
1–0
Andres Martin
(1 last)
- 14 Jul2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Arseneault 1440 · Andres Martin 1545
| Nicolas Arseneault | Andres Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andres Martin (rating 1440 vs 1545).
- Andres Martin is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Arseneault 1–0 Andres Martin (1).
Statistics
| Nicolas Arseneault | Andres Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.7 | 13.7-12.1 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 33.3% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
H2H · Nicolas Arseneault 1 – 0 Andres Martin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Arseneault 1–0 Andres Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/26 Challenger Granby | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Arseneault
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Benjamin Willwerth M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jonah Braswell M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Andres Martin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Alex Kobelt Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/07 | Ugo Humbert ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Moez Echargui ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 23/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin?
Our model gives 67% to Andres Martin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.