Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 04/08, 20:00
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
3-7 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1457 · Spencer Johnson 1591
| Moez Echargui | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1457 vs 1591).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 41% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-14.2 | 12.5-9.1 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Jordan Lee ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Keegan Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Edas Butvilas Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/06 | Jaime Faria Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Remy Bertola Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Stian Klaassen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Ronald Hohmann M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 64% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.