Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Marcello Serafini
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Marcello Serafini
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Marcello Serafini
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
4-6 (W-L)
Marcello Serafini
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1426 · Marcello Serafini 1498
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Marcello Serafini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marcello Serafini (rating 1426 vs 1498).
- Marcello Serafini is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (10.6/match).
- Note: Marcello Serafini makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Marcello Serafini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12 | 13.1-14.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 2 |
| Double faults | 10.6 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Wels |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Filippo Catalano M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Petros Tsitsipas M15 Lodz |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/07 | Szymon Podczaszy M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 22/06 | Tobia Grandinetti M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 14/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Matthew William Donald M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/05 | Michele Mecarelli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Marcello Serafini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Wels |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Alexander Gschiel M15 Wels |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 16/07 | Pierluigi Basile M15 Gubbio |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Gian Marco Ortenzi M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Lodz |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Louis Larue M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 23/06 | Henry Bernet M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Manuel Mazza M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Marcello Serafini?
Our model gives 65% to Marcello Serafini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.