Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 03/08, 16:00
Prediction: Ryan Colby vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryan Colby
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Ryan Colby
7-3 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Colby 1495 · Spencer Johnson 1573
| Ryan Colby | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1495 vs 1573).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Ryan Colby makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ryan Colby | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.6 | 11.9-8.5 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Colby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/07 | Alexander Frusina M25 Louisville |
0-1 | 3-7 | L |
| 07/07 | Yuta Shimizu M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Christian Langmo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 17/05 | Nick Hardt M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 16/05 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/05 | Lucca Liu M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/05 | Daniel Milavsky M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Stian Klaassen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Ronald Hohmann M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Colby vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 69% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.