Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 02/08, 17:30
Prediction: Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Aidan Kim · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Kim
Karl Poling
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Kim
7-3 (W-L)
Karl Poling
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aidan Kim
1–0
Karl Poling
(1 last)
- 29 Jul2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Kim 1567 · Karl Poling 1501
| Aidan Kim | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Kim (rating 1567 vs 1501).
- Aidan Kim is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aidan Kim 1–0 Karl Poling (1).
Statistics
| Aidan Kim | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9 | 13.5-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 38.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Aidan Kim 1 – 0 Karl Poling (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aidan Kim 1–0 Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/25 M25 Edwardsville | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Kim
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Trevor Svajda M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Gavin Young M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Mees Rottgering M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Alejandro Hernandez Gutierrez M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/07 | Bryce Nakashima M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Liam Krall M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Theodore Dean M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Joaquim Almeida M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Alexander Chang M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Karl Poling
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Kokoro Isomura Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/07 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Maxime St-Hilaire M25 Laval |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Alexander Rozin M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Dmitry Popko M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | James Trotter M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 66% to Aidan Kim, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.