Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 03/08, 16:00
Prediction: Ozan Baris vs Liam Broady
Team pages: Ozan Baris · Liam Broady
Prediction summary
Winner
Ozan Baris
Liam Broady
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Ozan Baris
7-3 (W-L)
Liam Broady
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ozan Baris 1644 · Liam Broady 1464
| Ozan Baris | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ozan Baris (rating 1644 vs 1464).
- Ozan Baris is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Liam Broady makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Ozan Baris | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (1) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-8 | 12.8-13 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 35.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ozan Baris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Johannus Monday M25 Edwardsville |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 31/07 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Edwardsville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Oliver Bonding M25 Edwardsville |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 29/07 | Nikita Filin M25 Edwardsville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/07 | Mees Rottgering M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/07 | Aleksa Ciric M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 17/07 | Maximus Dussault M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Teodor Davidov M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 15/07 | Marko Mesarovic M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | August Holmgren Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ozan Baris vs Liam Broady?
Our model gives 54% to Ozan Baris, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.