Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 02/08, 16:00
Prediction: Matthew Forbes vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Matthew Forbes · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Forbes
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Forbes
5-5 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Forbes 1527 · Spencer Johnson 1573
| Matthew Forbes | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1527 vs 1573).
- Matthew Forbes dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 45.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Matthew Forbes | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.9 | 11.8-8.5 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 35.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Forbes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Jie Cui Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Trevor Svajda M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Jie Cui M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/02 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/01 | William Grant M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/01 | Dhakshineswar Suresh M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Stian Klaassen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Ronald Hohmann M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Nile Ung M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Forbes vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 61% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.